Interviews and articles
Ukraine: Firmly planted in East and West
Orange or blue? West or east? EU or CIS? Ukraine seems to be confined to making "either-or" choices and thus condemned to cutting the Gordian knot. But must it be resolved like this? For Ukrainians and those interested in Ukraine, the answer is no.
Geographically, we are located between the European Union on one side and Russia on the other. From a cultural standpoint - whether languages, religions or history are involved - our heritages are intertwined. From an economic standpoint, we exchange almost equal amounts of goods and raw materials with the European Union as we do with Russia.
Such a position should push us towards building bridges rather than erecting walls. We should be thinking more of "and", and less of "or". Not Russia "or" the European Union, but Russia "and" the European Union. It is in the interest of Ukraine to develop good and strong relationships with its neighbors rather than conflicts.
It is also in our interest not to allow Ukraine to be a pawn in an international geo-strategic game between east and west. For the good of Ukraine, we must develop our own ambitious, proactive and modernizing approach based on a clear assessment of our strategic needs. Some of our specific challenges need to be overcome with deeper relations with the east, some others with the west. And they all should be implemented synergistically.
Our relationship with Russia is essential, historic and strategic for the future. One third of the Ukrainian population has Russian as its mother-tongue and about twenty percent consider themselves ethnic Russians. We also have strong and extremely important economic links with Russia, including in the field of energy. For the benefit of Ukraine, it is therefore vital to develop our cooperation and to exercise vigilance so as to not damage our general relationship. Ukrainians would have a lot to lose in doing so, both economically and in terms of cohesion and unity of the Ukrainian nation. This is why for example the vast majority of Ukrainians do not support Ukraine joining NATO, as it would be more divisive than uniting. The benefits are not clear, but the risks are.
On the other hand, I believe that the rapprochement with the European Union is also absolutely essential as Ukraine faces three specific challenges:
The first challenge is the development of a more robust democracy, one that serves both the will of the people and the good of the country. Ukraine has made undeniable progress over the last years. However, having free and fair elections is far from being enough. Participative democracy, professional and effective civil service, mature and dedicated political servants - those are what is needed to build upon the progress.
The second challenge is the realization of a society truly governed by the rule of law. There are huge obstacles to overcome, but for the good of the country we must move from justice "à la carte" to justice dispensed by an efficient, non-corrupted and independent judiciary system.
The third challenge is the nurturing of a legitimate, prosperous and independent market economy, free from political interference. Much remains to be accomplished in order to modernize the economy, to simplify its regulatory and fiscal framework, and to create an environment that is favorable for investment and job creation. Political leaders need to understand what the Soviets taught us: a government cannot successfully micro-manage a market economy.
I believe that the rapprochement with the European Union is the galvanizing political project that can unite the Ukrainian society and inspire our leaders to modernize our country in these directions. The prospect of membership in the European Union is a powerful driving force that will goad our political elites in the face of painful but essential reforms.
History can be our guide. Look at what happened in the ten countries that joined the EU in 2004: in the space of ten years, they brought about reforms in a manner and to an extent that would have been impossible without the prospect of membership. Recently, without the constant pressure from Brussels, Romania and Bulgaria never would have initiated their courageous and necessary reform of their judicial systems. Similarly, such an EU carrot-and-stick approach is essential if Ukraine is to overcome these three internal political challenges.
Clearly then, Ukraine should start an EU-integration process, not because my country should turn west and not east, but because this process of joining the EU is a way to force change. It is also in the EU's best interest to have a more democratic neighbor, subject to the rule of law and thriving with a growing economy.
This is a very ambitious goal, which will require much work, because neither the European Union nor Ukraine are ready for membership in the near future. That is why more than two years ago I took the initiative with others of launching YES (Yalta European Strategy - www.yes-urkraine.org), an international network aimed precisely at promoting and concretely supporting the membership of Ukraine in the European Union.
The path - i.e. the reforms - matter more than the objective - i.e. EU membership. Indeed, the present EU is far from perfect. And no one knows what the EU of the future will look like when Ukraine is ready to take its place there, or even if it will be attractive. Presently, the European Union is in crisis and does not have a clear vision for its future. Defining its identity, its role and its frontiers is the imperative challenge for the EU.
The world of tomorrow will be very different than that of today, because it will be multipolar and dominated by several regional superpowers. If the EU wants to play an important role on the international stage and defend its interests, it must extend its influence and consequently its perimeter. In that context, Ukraine's accession will become an obvious necessity, not a question, as will the strengthening of the EU's ties with Russia.
Here is my dream. That today the European Union will initiate rapprochement with Ukraine in order to help and encourage my country to institute reforms - this is in the interest of everyone. And that tomorrow, a newly ambitious, prosperous European Union, with a vision and a plan for the future, will unite all the countries of Europe and defend our common interests and values in an ever more complex world.
Victor Pinchuk, Founder and Board Member of the Yalta European Strategy (YES), is the Founder of Interpipe Corporation, one of Ukraine's largest industrial holding companies. He served in Ukraine's Parliament from 1998 to 2006.
